According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, about $875 billion of the roughly $5.0 trillion in outstanding commercial and multifamily mortgages, around 17 percent, is scheduled to mature in 2026, down from about $957 billion in 2025. Numbers like these get described as a wall. We think it is more useful to see them as a queue: thousands of individual loans, each meeting a different market than the one it was written in.
Why so many loans meet a different market
Many of the loans maturing now were made or extended when interest rates were far lower and values were higher. At maturity the owner has to refinance at today’s rates, against today’s value, with today’s rents and expenses. Insurance and property taxes have risen in many markets faster than income. For a property whose income has grown, the gap may be small. For one that has lost tenants, or whose value depended on a low rate, it can be large.
Three kinds of maturing loans
- The healthy refinance: income has held up, and the property qualifies for a new permanent loan, perhaps at a lower loan amount. The owner may need to add some equity.
- The plan in progress: a renovation, lease-up or repositioning is underway but not finished. The property needs time and capital, not a sale. This is where bridge capital does its best work.
- The broken capital structure: the property may be fine, but the debt is larger than the asset can carry at today’s value. Someone has to take a loss or put in new money before any lender can help.
“Bridge capital is for a plan that is working but not finished, not for postponing a loss.”
The role of private lenders
Banks have pulled back from some kinds of real estate lending, and private lenders and debt funds have filled much of the gap, often at higher cost. One lending marketplace’s data for the second quarter of 2026 showed private lenders’ average quoted rate on commercial real estate loans about 3.3 percentage points above banks’, and borrowers still often chose them, citing speed, higher leverage and structures banks would not offer. Speed has real value. But borrowing expensive money to delay a decision rarely improves the outcome.
How we think about it
We underwrite each maturity on its own facts. That means starting from what the property earns and is worth today, asking whether the business plan is credible and funded, and sizing the loan to an exit we expect to be available, not one we hope for. It also means saying early when a deal does not fit, because a clear no in week one serves a borrower better than a stretched yes that fails at the next maturity.
The maturity schedule will keep moving. Some loans will be extended, some refinanced, some restructured, and some sold. The owners who come through best will be those who start early, know their numbers, and choose capital that matches what their property actually needs.
If your loan matures in the next 18 months
- Get a current view of value and of what a permanent lender would size today.
- Know your debt yield and coverage at today’s rates, not the original ones.
- Talk with your current lender early about extension terms.
- Decide whether you need time, capital or a new structure, and choose financing for that purpose.
Sources
Mortgage Bankers Association: 17 percent of commercial and multifamily mortgage balances to mature in 2026 (February 9, 2026)CRE Daily: Private lenders outpace banks despite 329 bps cost gap (July 15, 2026; Gumption Technologies Q2 2026 data)For general information only. This is not an offer or commitment to lend, insure or invest, and not legal, tax, accounting or investment advice. Terms, availability and eligibility vary and are subject to credit approval and applicable law. Fortuneo Redux Reinsurance, Ltd. and Fortuneo Manens Life & Annuity Company are planned entities and are not licensed.